Market Forecast for 11-23-12

Since this is holiday trading, be fast and nibble on your feet as reversals and be swift. Go for short-term profits. It could be choppy today.

AUDUSD: Aussie is breaking out of a downtrend line. If it can nudge above 1.0425 AND 1.0448 (the ANDREWS upper Pitchfork resistance), then it should run to the price target at 1.0547.

ACTION 1: Buy pullbacks on Aussie with a target of 105.20 to 1.0547 as long as the 60 and/or 240 minute trends are sloping up.

ACTION 2: Should the 60 and/or 240 minute trends turn lower, especially if today's session low (currently 1.0375) is breached over the next 3 sessions on the downside, then sell baby sell with a target of 102.65 (see daily Aussie chart below).

audusd daily chart 11-23-12

EURUSD: The Euro is flirting above its trend-line resistance but currently not above an additional breakout point at 1.2911.

ACTION: If the pair takes out 1.2911, then  look for resistance at 1.29265 and possibly 1.2998.

ACTION2: A break of 1.2882 will likely send the EURUSD lower to 1.2845. In that case, sell the breakout and look for a quick 35 pips on the short side.

DXZ: The US Dollar Index is at support and looks like it could go either way, which of course, depends on whether the EURUSD breaks resistance or not. Failure of the Euro to push prices higher by early US trading could lead to a temporary low here eve,n if it looks weak now at 3:00 AM EST. See daily and 4-hour charts below.

us dollar index daily chart 11-23-2012

dxz2 240 minute chart 11-23-2012

USDJPY: This currency pair had the additional rally up as expected. A top is likely forming with the outside chance or one last push. A break of 82.12 would likely lead to a drop to the 81.35 area. See daily and 240-minute charts below.

dollar-yen daily chart 11-23-12

usdjpy 4-hour chart for november 23, 2012

USDSGD: USD-Singpore Dollar broke to the upside but has yet to confirm any momentum. Now we are in a wedge.

ACTION: Traders should consider bracketing both sides of the 4-day high and low for a trade either long or short. See daily chart for targets and breakout lines.

usdsgd daily chart 11-23-12

US Stock Markets: S&P500 and ND-NASDAQ are now at resistance from our daily buy recommendation for a pop up. It looks like it will break through resistance and keep running, but we could have a pause and a pullback at any time. The daily and 240 minute zero lag stochastic have crossed to the downside, but the weekly has just crossed up. The likely scenarios in this case is an eventual continuation of this rally after a pullback, unless this resistance area is broken today! In that case, the market would likely accelerate up. Foreign markets look fairly strong in the early hours.

ACTION: Short-term traders may want to lighten up on their positions IF we do not blow through resistance in the early US session,  in case there is a significant pullback if resistance in this area holds.

Longer-term traders add to positions at 2114.50 (for the ND) and for the SP500 at 1393.50 , or wait for an eventually 240 minute to daily pullback to add to positions or buy back it. Should last weeks low of 1340.13 be exceeded, we would then be ultra cautious again (see ND weekly/daily and SP500 weekly charts below).

nasdaq weekly chart 11-23-2012

nd daily chart 11-23-12

s&p500 weekly chart 11-23-2012

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