Market Forecast for 11-16-12

USDSGD: The US Dollar-Singapore Dollar pair has broken out of our previously listed buy area and is approaching the adjusted profit target #1 of 1.2320. My first manual target is 1.2408, then potentially much higher to the 1.27 area.

ACTION: Those already long, move stop to 1.2231 and move it to break even at 1.2300, BUY intra-day pullbacks until 1.2320 is reached. If breached strongly, stay with it and ride this puppy higher. See daily chart beow.

usdsgd daily chart 11-16-12

USDJPY: Dollar-Yen is in a topping process with the potential to make one slightly higher high. then have a very nice pullback into the 80.66 to 80.10 area. The 60- minute trends will roll over if the momentum wanes on any new rally. You can play it both ways now, just in case it fails here rather than make one more high. Either way, if the break lower occurs, then sell the rallies into the larger picture pullback low (see USDJPY daily, 240-minute and 60-minute charts below).

usdjpy daily chart 11-15-2012

usdjpy 240-minute chart nov 15, 2012

dollar-yen 60-minute chart 11-15-2012

EURJPY: Euro-Yen has sold off exactly as we suggested it might and is having a nice pullback. If short based on that call, keep in mind that this is likely just a correction, so play it with tighter targets and stops.

ACTION: Trade this currency pair with a short-term approach. Like USDJPY, we could have one more rally to a top, but it looks a bit less likely with this cross. Instead, trade the Dollar-Yen tomorrow. We will reassess things over the weekend.

See also the US Dollar Index chart below with trend lines and potential forecast.

us dollar index daily chart 11-15-2012

SP500: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is at the 62% retracement area of the June to September rally. Daily trends have obviously turned down and the Andrews Median Line comes in at 1320 with a longer-term Andrews Pitchfork support line at 1306 – and those two lines intersect at 1311. WRITE THESE DOWN. If the market does not pause here for even a few days, then we are heading (as I have been saying is most likely) much lower. The automated forecast target is 1245.

ACTION: Use caution here because of the 62% level and because the Nikkei had a strong day and it's possible that at this level, the S&P could find support.

Until we see the 60 and 240-minute trends turn up, you can keep selling intra-day rallies, but there is evidence of a 5-wave low, at least short-term. Just be cautious of a pop in price here. A break above 1353.68 and then 1358.10 would likely mean a short-term 2-3 day low is in. Again, if that does not happen and the market drops much more, all near-term support will be gone until 1320, 1311 and 1306, with 1245 and weekly targets looming way below (see weekly, daily, and 4-hour S&P charts below).

s&p500 weekly chart 11-16-2012

sp500 daily chart with analysis 11-16-12

s&p500 240-minute chart for november 16, 2012

GOLD: Daily trends are flat with no new automated signal yet, but we have a potential box forming to breakout from.

Good luck with you trades. Please leave us your comments and feedback below.
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