Market Forecast for 08-08-12

EURAUD: The Euro-Aussie has likely completed a 5th Wave low. As it made its way to the low, it had declining angular momentum (trend-line drawn off the swing lows) and a nice little wedge to break out from.

ACTION: Consider buying intra-day pullbacks, especially once the 240-minute trend turns up, or buy a breakout above the three-day high of 1.17751. Use 1.1608 stop loss and move stop to break even at 1.1834, with targets of 1.2002 and 1.2230 or higher. My hope is that this currency pair will pull back first before a breakout, which would allow for the placement of a tighter stop loss. The lower risk option is buying pullbacks (see the daily chart below with analysis).

euraud euro-aussie daily chart

EURUSD: The Euro has an inside bar on the daily charts. Now expect a thrust move from this bar in either direction so caution is warranted over the next 24 hours. If long from our buy near the lows, stay long. If the market pulls back, consider using that as a buying opportunity. See 240-minute chart below.

euro 240-minute chart with analysis

US Stock Market: S&P500 tagged our upper target of 1403, but failed to close above 1398, our listed critical breakout level that the market would need to close above. Thus, it is still stuck in the 5-month range and still vulnerable to the downside vacuum that will eventually suck the life out of stocks. Be cautious in here if long. Only a strong breakout to the upside, then a pullback that then continues higher could get me excited about this market. I will continue to be on high alert for the crash that is coming beginning this year or likely underway by April next year. See S&P daily chart below.

sp500 daily chart - us stock market

Crude Oil: Oil sold off over the last few weeks almost as exactly as was mapped out for you in the forecasts. The recent rally was then a bit more than I initially expected, but it stopped on the Andrews resistance line. For the next 24 hours, we will be on alert for either an immediate reversal down from here or a sideways pause that might offer enough of a coil to push higher from. Since Natural Gas futures had a huge day down last week of close to 8%, and with crude oil being at its resistance point, consider looking for a reversal lower in OIL over the next 2-3 days. See oil chart below.

crude oil daily chart

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