Market Forecast for 07-11-12

We apologize, as this July 11th report was supposed to be posted earlier this morning.

Since more often than not my macro and micro economic forecasts come true with a high degree of price time accuracy, I would like to let people know that I keep seeing a tsunami coming on the horizon. Therefore, I believe that we will either see an actual tsunami or a figuartive economic tsunami. Now for the markets…

Euro: The EURUSD is likely at or near the bottom of Elliott Wave 5 of larger Wave (3), right into the predicted target area, so expect a corrective rally of 2-5 days, with 3-5 days more likely, since corrective Wave 2 was a powerful but simple two-day correction. Thus, Wave 4 will likely be more complex and a harder to trade flat or triangle correction (rule of alternation between waves).

Use shorter-term charts if you want to try to catch any bounce, then sell again, or just wait for the rally to sell into.  After the next low, a larger degree Wave (4) rally should manifest before the intermediate lows that will usher in a more significant and "tradable" upward correction.

If no rally unfolds within 2 days, it likely means a harsh acceleration lower; this is the juncture we are nearing. I favor a bounce in here. The pattern over the next 7-14 days should give us a clue to the larger picture (see the Euro monthly, daily, and 4-hour charts below with the analysis).

eurusd monthly chart

eurusd daily chart

euro four hour chart

EURJPY and CHFJPY: The Euro-Yen has a pattern similar to the Euro against the US Dollar (bounce, then one more monthly low). The same holds true for the CHFJPY. See charts for wave counts and likely pathways below.

eurjpy daily

chfjpy daily

After these upcoming lows, it looks like something major may happen in Japan, or possibly something affecting the USA. I hope it's not another tsunami or earthquake. I keep seeing another Tsunami in my dreams, but it could be symbolic.

Stock Market: US stocks are also at another critical juncture, being at an important trend-line support area after breaking the Andrews Support Line on Tuesday (see daily Standard & Poor's 500 chart below). If the two-day low is broken by more than a few points, then a rather fierce acceleration lower will likely begin. Conversely,"IF" there is a rally above the two-day high, then a larger corrective rally is likely, with the possibly of a new pre-election high (see ED COT to SP500 chart comparison below). Right now I am leaning to the downside. 

S&P500 and the US DOW stock indexes could possibly be symbolic of the tsunami I keep seeing over the last 3 weeks and would actually permit that scenario, if (when) 12330 on the DOW (DJIA) ) and 1300 on the S&P500 is broken, which would then lead to the acceleration lower into year 2016. Either way, I see that happening. The only question is whether it materializes over the next 30 days, or after the US election.

sp500 us stock market chart

euro dollar interest rate futures ED COT chart

The only favorable thing to mention is that when when the EURO Dollar Interest Rate Futures contract ED COT chart is offset by 6 months and lined up with the actual S&P500 price chart, it suggests a rally into October or November (of that pattern continues). We will likely know within just a few days what will happen over the next 5 months.

XAGUSD: Silver rallied off the 5th wave low, then sold off in a likely B wave, as expected. Now, we anticipate a bit larger corrective rally, as mapped out in the charts (see below). However, like the other markets, if the four-week low is broken, then we would see a major acceleration lower. We are still waiting to see if any rally that develops will be a corrective ABC three-part rally (not a new trend up), or if the rally has a 5-wave impulsive trend pattern. Again, up to the present moment, DEFLATION has been winning, which bodes well for the bears.

Bonds of all types will become increasingly vulnerable to the downside in price (the upside in interest rates), over the months and years ahead, regardless of what governments and corporations attempt to do.

silver xagusd dail chart

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