Market Forecast for 04-02-13


GBPUSD: LONG 1/2 to 3/4 of remaining position on cable. The corrective rally in the Pound that we got you into (near the low) may be running out of steam. If it does NOT rally Tuesday in the US session, then it will likely generate a daily system trade short Tuesday or Wednesday.

ACTION: Use 60-240 minute stops on the long trade, or use a daily stop of 1.5177 and look to sell this pair on oversold intra-day rallies as long as the 60 and/or 240 minute trends have turned down – if not, then wait. The daily chart has 2 out of 3 trends still down, and weekly trends are down and the pair is mildly overbought on short look-back settings with the oscillators. See weekly and daily charts below for GBPUSD.

gbpusd weekly chart 04-02-2013

daily gbpusd chart for april 2, 2013

USDJPY: SHORT Dollar-Yen from the day of the high, but may give a hanging man buy signal on the close, if this currency pair does not move lower in the US session.

ACTION: Move stops down to 93.47. Prepare for short-term corrective rally, should 93.47 be exceeded. See USDJPY daily chart below with the complete analysis.

usdjpy daily chart 04-02-13

S&P500 and NASDAQ Short trades were stopped out a break even.

S&P500:  The stock market should again top within the next 24-48 hours and begin a correction lower, even if new highs are made first. In fact, we prefer that new highs are made  first. However, this time, many individual stocks are setting up in sell patterns with quite a few having pending sell signals at this time just waiting for a breakout to the downside to trigger them short. There are far more stocks with pending sell signals than those with pending buy signals. In fact, it is about 11 to 1 to the short side coming up. Thus, a breakout lower this time will  likely trigger many stocks short and move the indexes much lower during the next correction lower.

ACTION: A Break below 1552 is the initial short-term support to likely turn the 60 minute trends to the short side. Otherwise, wait until the 60 minute trends turn sour to consider shorts.

Resistances for the S&P are at the 1561.50, 1562.47 and 1564.50 areas. See the daily S&P500 chart below.

s&p500 daily stock market chart 04-02-2013

XAUUSD: GOLD is pending Buy and Sell signals (see red breakout lines). Daily chart is provided below.

gold chart for april 2nd, 2013

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