Market Forecast for 03-22-13

EURUSD: The Euro is FLAT and stopped out a breakeven on a quick counter-trend long trade, (see reco from March 15th). Daily and 240 minute trends are still heading down.

ACTION 1: Consider Long positions if the EURO trades above 1.2957, as that would likely be a an place where pattern traders will be getting buy signals.

ACTION 2: Consider Short trades IF the EURO trades below 1.2872, as that would likely be a an place where pattern traders will be getting sell signals. See daily Euro chart below with complete analysis.

eurusd daily chart for 03-22-2013

GBPUSD: LONG Cable, having exited 1/3 to 1/2, and the currency pair is up almost 300 pips, but it is now in the vicinity of some resistance areas (magenta trend & purple outer band coming up on chart). However, we have another system supported buy signal. This rally is likely a Wave 4 corrective rally, so use caution on any new long positions and play them tighter during these next few days, as we await another daily sell signal.

ACTION: Keep long with tight stops on 240 minute chart and prepare to roll to sell side again.

XAUUSD: LONG Gold, now at resistance of mid bands. This is likely a corrective C wave rally, so we may receive a daily sell signal within 24-48 hours.

ACTION: Move stops to 1601 OCO, 1634 limit on at least 1/2 the position. Some traders may want to exit 1/3 to 1/2 here. We still may the higher targets of 1637 and 1688. Conversely, breaking 1601 would likely suggest a move to 1588 and perhaps a renewal of the down trend. Daily chart below.

xauusd gold daily chart for march 22, 2013

DX-USD: Dollar index SHORT. The rollover price data has not been updated, so the charts only have a few bars.

ACTION: exited /1/2, with a stops now at breakeven.

USDJPY: SHORT Dollar-Yen. We are guessing that this is the top area of either a Wave 5 of a larger Wave (3), or the top area of a larger Wave-C. There is a wedge pattern that gives us defined boundaries for new trades.

ACTION: Use Friday's large range bar high for stop loss and its low as support for new shorts, should the low be broken. See USDJPY daily chart below.

usdjpy chart daily 03-22-13

S&P500:  SHORT US Stock Market. Our responsive mid band trend indicator (Purple on chart) is now heading lower on the daily charts. Move stops to 1551 which should be below breakeven point. Forecasts show some choppiness before heading lower, so we may have to try this again. We are looking for the longer-term cycle top for 2013 to potentially peak in this time-frame, so no targets will be used just yet on this trade.  If this is a cycle top, then targets will remain much lower. See S&P daily chart below.

s&p500 daily chart with analysis for 03-22-2013

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One Response to Market Forecast for 03-22-13

  1. EURUSD, long from 1.2957, move stops to 1.2933.

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