Market Forecast for 02-19-13

EURUSD: The Euro has formed a small compression pattern. Even though we think the big picture for the currency is for it to more likely to weaken against the USD over the next month or more, for now,  we will take the breakout from this compression in either direction, for either a short 2-3 day potential rally, or a potential extended sell-off IF it breaks lower now, or within the next three to five days, preferably after a 2-3 day correction up.

ALL ORDERS ARE GTC unless otherwise stated…

ACTION 1: BUY EURUSD @ 1.3394 stop to open, use 1.3312 stop loss, move stop to break even @ 1.3442, exit 1/2 position at 1.3473 limit, trail stop to exit remaining position @ 1.3526 sell limit OCO (once cancels the other) your trailing stop loss, or you might stay in if it is running until target 3 @1.3586 sell limit OCO your trailing stop loss.

ACTION 2: SELL EURUSD @ 1.3297 stop to open, use 1.3370 stop loss, move stop to break even @ 1.3256, exit 1/2 position at 1.3177 limit, trail stop to exit remaining position @ 1.3037 buy limit OCO your trailing stop loss, or you might stay in if it is running until target 3 (the measured moved target) @1.2880 buy limit OCO your trailing stop loss.

USDCAD: Caught another excellent compression pattern buy signal on the February 15th market report.

ACTION: Day traders are probably out, since the currency pair is up over 100 PIPS. Medium term traders should use 1.0095 stop for now. Long-term traders use 1.0033 stop, but if the market makes a new high, then move stop to 1.0100. See 240 minute chart for USDCAD below.

usdcad 240 minute chart for february 19, 2013

SP500: The index continues to rally in a declining momentum up trend. Again, it has a pattern that must either thrust upward within 48 hours or it will have a sharp plunge as the market is making lower momentum tops with each flaccid up move. It will likely make a big move very soon.

ACTION: If long, stay long with stop and reverse (SAR) to short @ 1509.80 SELL stop to open, use 1518.05 buy stop loss. If entered short, then trail a stop loss on this one, as we are looking for the big break lower when it does occur. Daily and 4-hour charts are provided below.

s&p500 daily chart 02-19-13

sp500 240 minute chart for 02-19-2013

ASIA: The bulk of the Asian cross pairs are either in a topping distribution patterns or are all building 4th Wave triangles, which lead to the final wave up in a particular up leg, such as this one.

EURJPY: ACTION: only trade outside the triangle/wedge trend-lines in either direction of the breakout. See daily chart below for breakout points.

euro-yen daily 02-19-2013

XAUUSD: Gold has reached the lower standard deviation line and has compressed for a potential pop up, even though the 423.6% FIBO projection is still lower at the 1578-1580 price area.

ACTION: Short-term traders exit 1/2 position, trail 240 minute longer-term stop loss now at 1633. Long-term traders hold short with daily stop loss at 1646. See daily chart below.

gold xauusd daily chart 02-19-2013

Good luck with your trades today!

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