Market Forecast for 02-08-13

EURAUD: Euro-Aussie had a trend/counter-trend system sell signal with the purple center trend-line heading lower now, but the CYAN colored trend still heading up. Therefore, the trend is mixed. Expect sideways action or a breakout lower to the 1.2830 to 1.2630 area.

ACTION: Look to sell intra-day rallies as long as the 60 or 240 minute trend is heading lower, with targets of 1.2830 to 1.2630 area. See daily chart below with complete analysis.

euraud daily chart 02-08-2013

EURUSD: The Euro sold off from our daily signal and then also rallied as suggested from our 240 minute signal to have a better place for you to get short from, which indeed occurred. From here, it is less clear, but with the 4 hour trends lower and daily trends mixed, we might expect at least one more sell off. But caution is warranted until we receive another 240 minute short signal, likely later today or Sunday evening. See 4-hour Euro chart below.

eurusd 240 minute chart for february 8, 2013

USDCAD: We have a daily system BUY signal in a slight uptrend on this currency pair, while the 240 minute chart's trends are down, but close to reversing if the market pops up above .99945.

ACTION: Buy on a break above .99950. Use 1.0060 for break even point and to exit 1/3 of the position, since the trend is not strong as of yet. BUT, we remain open to shorting the next rally if it looks corrective and the 240 minute trend is heading lower, as it is now. See daily and 240 minute charts for potential patterns below.

usdcad daily chart 02-08-2013

240 minute usdcad chart for february 8th

JP225:  The Japan Nikkei 225 stock index weekly and daily charts (see below) show a clear 5 wave up Elliott Wave pattern with what appears to be the top of  Wave 5 of larger Wave (3). This suggests that there will be a fairly good sized correction to the prior Wave 4 low area around 1.0390.

ACTION: Look to sell intra-day rallies as long as the 60 or 240 minute trend are heading lower, with targets of 1.0780, 1.0430 and 1.0380.

nikke 225 weekly chart with analysis 02-08-2013

jp225 japan daily chart 02-08-13

For the commodity traders out there:

WHEAT: A huge and declining wedge pattern has been unfolding since the January 2011 high of 35.97. These wedges usually get resolved to the upside which would mean a measured move high greater than or equal to the Jan 2011 high of 35.97. Conversely, occasionally these patterns break to the downside. Breaking 17.40 to 17.20 would likely portend a massive drop because of the size of the pattern. Thus, we suggest straddling both sides with orders. 

ACTION 1: LIGHTLY BUY @ 19.03 stop to open GTC (good-till-cancelled), use 18.03 initial stop loss. Move stops to breakeven point at 19.60. The market would have to get above 21.75 to confirm a long-term breakout up with targets potentially to 35.95 or greater. We would be happy to see 29.00, the 62% retracement level of the entire pattern and 32.13 (but use 31.98) which is the 78.6% retracement level. You may want to add to the position at 20.02 and 21.77, which would clear out much of the overhead resistance.

ACTION 2: LIGHTLY SELL @ 17.40 stop to open GTC (good-till-cancelled), use 18.67 initial stop loss. Move stops to break even at 16.07. Consider selling more at 17.20 sell stop to open. Long-term target would be around 7.80 to potentially lower. See weekly chart for wheat below.

wheat weekly chart 02-08-2013

XAUUSD: GOLD has yet to break out of this compression pattern. See chart for breakout points and add a bit extra for longs and subtract a little more than normal for shorts to keep from getting chopped. See the daily gold chart below.

gold daily chart xauusd 02-08-2013

S&P500: The 240 minute chart on the index (provided below) has been demonstrating slowing upward momentum, as is the case for the NASDAQ. We would need to see a spike higher within the next 2 sessions or so, or the cycles will start to roll over the the sell side. And as we have been saying, the March 2013 center date for a long-term cycle top still looms over us.

sp500 stock index chart 240 minute february 8, 2013

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