Market Forecast for 02-05-13

EURUSD: We had a systematic exhaustion sell signal on the daily EURUSD chart today, but the 240 minute chart is now at the lower TMA Band support so you would be better served to wait for a bounce to try to sell it – or, short-term traders can try to catch a retracement rally of 70-130 points or so, then possibly consider a short on the Euro. See the daily and 4-hour charts below with the complete analysis.

eurusd daily chart 02-05-13

240 minute eurusd chart february 5, 2013

USDCAD: The US Dollar-CAD pair has a daily buy signal, which may only be a corrective rally but could give us a little P/L. Look to peel off on 60-240 over bought areas. See the daily chart below.

daily usdcad chart 02-05-2013

OIL: Crude oil is looking to sell off to the 95.35 area and possibly to the 94.00 area, then likely go higher. See the weekly and daily crude charts below.

weekly crude oil chart with analysis 02-05-13

oil daily chart 02-05-13

S&P500: The index looks a lot like the gold chart. We had a systematic counter-trend sell signal on the daily chart today, but the market has ran the stops at the recent intra-day swing lows and will likely pop up until the the NY open or perhaps through the London close. Some of the overseas stock indexes have had sell signals and sold off sharply. Give this a day or two to try the same thing.

ACTION: Here too you might be better served to wait for a bounce to try to sell it. Right now it is in a 240 minute long trade. However, a break of the Asian low so far of 1490.13 would likely lead to lower prices with a automated measured move target of 1469.55 (+25 ticks). See the daily S&P chart below.

sp500 daily chart 02-05-2013

XAUUSD: Gold is close to a breakout point.

ACTION 1: BUY: aggressive traders use 1680 buy stop to open the trade. Conservative traders use 1683.90 buy stop to open, for a long side breakout with stop loss at 1666. Move stop loss to breakeven point at 1693.50. Target 1 = 1704, Target 2 = 1717 or higher.

ACTION 2: SELL: 1657.50 sell stop to open, with stop loss also at 1666, move stop to breakeven point at 1643. Target 1 = 1633.50, Target 2 = 1621.50 or lower. See daily gold chart below with analysis.

gold xauusd daily chart 02-05-2013

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