Market Forecast for 04-23-12

According to our forecasts, the seemingly best bet  this week will likely be shorting the stock indexes for the expected drop or mini-crash into May 20th, or June 15th time zone. Gold and crude oil may experience drops as well.  With gold wound up in a narrow price range for 4 weeks, a significant thrust is eminent. Regarding foreign exchange, the Aussie currency crosses look to have more trendability early in the week, and is likely where you should focus your Forex trading for Monday or Tuesday.

Currency Market Analysis

AUDJPY: System is short and alread at the Andrews Median Line lower support fork. Sell rallies on intra-day charts unless 84.75 is exceeded, at which time you would likely want to be long or at least be buying the dips on Aussie-Yen.

AUDNZD: After a tremendous short trade on Aussie-Kiwi based on prior forecasts, we were looking for a more significant rally to the 1.2650 price area (h=1.2720). For now, look to continue to sell rallies until 1.2430 area is reached. See the AUDNZD analysis on the daily chart below:

audnzd aussie kiwi daily chart

Trade Recommendation: Sell at 1.2665 stop to open, use 1.2708 stop loss, move stop to breakeven at 1.2617 target 1.2430 or greater.

AUDUSD: Aussie-Dollar is consolidating on the weekly basis (see weekly AUDUSD forecast chart below) , and likely to go lower on daily charts. Use the two-week high and low as breakout points for longer-term buy and sell points and to help determine the trend for the next two weeks. This should be a real mover once the breakout occurs.

audusd weekly aussie us dollar

EURAUD: The low we were looking for on Euro-Aussie occurred.

Trade Recommendation: LONG @ 1.2755, use 1.2675 stop loss, move stop to breakeven point at 1.28, target 1.29 or grater. BUY DIPS on intraday charts, as long as 60-minute trend is up. See the daily chart with the currency analysis below:

euraud euro aussie chart

EURGBP: Daily/weekly trends on popular Euro-Pound cross are down, but getting oversold so expect a 1 to 3 day rally soon. However, continue to sell raliies as long as 60 minute trend is down. Downside target still .8100. Weekly forecast chart on EURGBP is below.

eurgbp weekly

EURUSD: Euro may have had a 5th wave low followed by and ABC corrective rally that may have been completed on Friday, but with the outside chance of a move up to 1.3280 first. 

Trade Recommendation: SELL Euro at 1.3128 stop to open, use 1.3180 stop loss, move stop to breakeven at 1.3081, target 1.3056.

eurusd daily chart

EURJPY: Bounce towards 107.50 to 108 (108.001) occurred, so short-term Forex traders should be short and continuing to sell rallies on Euro-Yen unless 107.83 is exceeded. EURJPY analysis on daily chart below.

euro yen daily chart

USDCAD: Continues to be in channel or wedge formation as stated previously. Continue to SCALP Dollar-Cad within formation until a breakout above or below trendlines occurs.

USDCHF: Trends on the dailies are still down but we also have a potential buy if Friday's high is exceeded on Dollar-Swiss. Prefer to trade the Aussie crosses for more direction until perhaps Tuesday.

USDJPY: Low that we were looking for to buy dips occurred on Dollar-Yen. Now, system is short again. Action: sell rallies until .8100 is reached, for a possible support area. See the Yen chart below.

usdjpy yen chart

Other Markets

GOLD-XAUUSD: Looks like Gold  may also roll over to the down side after being in an narrow range for 4 weeks.

Trade Recommendation: SELL at 1621.65 stop to open, use 1654 stop loss, move stop to breakeven if price reaches 1592. Target 1421.

gold xauusd weekly chart

S&P500 Stock Index: topping action that was expected in ND (NASDAQ), SP and DJI (Dow Jones Industrials) occurred and a nice sell off that was expected unfolded, with what looks likely only an ABC corrective rally as drawn out on previous charts. Continue to short rallies for now. Monday should be lower, so looked to get short on any index rallies, as long as 60-minute trends remain down.

Trade Recommendation: SELL at 12837 stop to open, use 12960 stop loss, move stop to 12900 if 12790 is reached, target 12050 or greater.

Cycles suggest that we could see some fireworks lower into May 20th to possibly June 15th. Stay tuned. See daily Dow analysis below:

stock market daily analysis

Crude Oil: Look to sell rallies as long as 60-minute trend is down unless 104.30 is broken on the upside.


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