Video – Forecasting Crude Oil – Retro Series Part 3

With the current price of a barrel of crude oil hovering around the $90s and having been higher than $140 less than 5 years ago, it is difficult to picture the price of oil in the 40-dollar range.

Well, that is what FX money manager Michael Mansfield forecasted back on April 2005 during a live market webinar. In the video clip below (part 3 of that April webinar), Mansfield used different technical methods of analysis to forecast a temporary drop in price from a current level near $59 a barrel. The drop in oil prices reached down to the $40s. Mansfield also predicted a subsequent rise as high as $120, which eventually materialized in 2008.

These videos show that it is possible to accurately forecast market prices and will help any trader interested in learning how to analyze and trade markets correctly.

Notes and Summary on the Video (April 5th, 2005)

At the end of the video, Michael Mansfield recommends that those who are long crude should sell at least two-thirds of their position and wait for a pullback. That pullback did occur, when the price dropped to the 40s in May of that same year.

During the webinar, Mansfield also forecasts that the price of oil would hit 90 dollars a barrel and that the market could see oil rise as high as 120 dollars, which eventually took place in 2008 before the big drop began that same year. Mansfield states:

"…ultimately I wouldn't be surprised if oil hit 90 dollars a barrel. That’s my target. This is in constant dollars, adjusted for inflation.  So we could go way up to 120 dollars without taking the nominal crude oil prices adjusted for inflation…"

Sticking to his tried and true approach of analyzing markets, Mansfield discusses the use of Elliott Waves, Andrew's lines, Gann, and Fibonacci throughout the video.

During the next video, Mansfield covers the stock market and warns investors to exit long positions on US stocks due to future dangers in the US economy.

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