Market Quickie for 06-18-12

This is a quick market summary right after Greek elections yesterday.

AUDNZD: The Aussie-Kiwi is on or slightly below support and may find support for a bounce here. However, if the two-day low is broken, expect an acceleration lower, potentially to the 1.2650-1.2550 area (see daily graph below).

aussie kiwi daily chart

AUDUSD and NZDUSD are both on or slightly below resistance. Expect a selloff  around here. If the two-day high is broken, expect an acceleration up as depicted by the manual and computer forecasts. I actually favor a quick retracement within 48 hours, then we'll see the pattern better (see both daily graphs below).

audusd chart daily

kiwi dollar daily analysis

EURUSD and GBPUSD also hit  resistance at Sunday's high beautifully. Expect volatility around these levels, especially due to the elections in Greece that took place yesterday. A selloff  around here is likely. If the two-day high is broken, expect an acceleration up as depicted by the manual and computer forecasts. I favor a quick retracement within 48 hours (see the daily graphs below for the Euro and Cable).

euro daily chart after greek elections

cable gbpusd chart

DJ (DOW Jones Industrial stock index): is slightly below the Andrews upper resistance line and slightly below our upper band resistance forecast. Expect a selloff  around here. However, If the  upper band resistance forecast is broken, expect an acceleration up as depicted by the manual and computer forecasts, and the ED interest rate chart projected forward 6 months, as shown on our analysis a few weeks ago, and now here again (see interest rate chart below).

june 4th interest rate chart

A hard reversal here would be more bearish, longer-term. A quick retracement within 48 hours is what I favor. Either way, expect an increase in volatility within 48 hours.

Even though we forecasted a low around June 3, 2012, that potentially could be more than a bounce (even the outside possibility of a rally for 2-4 months based on the interest rate cycle effect). The wave counts and prices thus far still leave us in crash-watch territory unless this resistance zone is tested, then broken to the upside. If not, look out below, especially after the US elections and into 2013 when all our cycles will be heading down into 2016 (see analysis on daily Dow chart below).

dow stock market chart

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