Market Forecast for 08-03-12

EURUSD: It was a bit of a treacherous day yesterday. We were stopped out of our Euro Buy recommendation, but it is still perfectly in line with our previously mapped out forecast of the 2 main launch points for the next leg up to begin. We will go for it again.

New Signal: Buy EUR/USD 1.2225 Stop to open, use 1.2130 stop loss, move stop to break even at 1.2277, exit 1/3 of position at 1.2450 and we will look for a daily system buy once the trend turns up on the 240m and daily charts, which may be Friday or Monday if we are correct, and hold the remaining positions, for upper target 2 = 1.2660 and Target 3 = 1.2770.

If stopped out, we will try one more time to buy at 1.2080 limit with a stop loss at 1.2050. Same targets until we update (see EURUSD 4-hour chart with analysis below).

eurusd 240 minute chart with forecast

SP500: US Stock Market barometer, the Standard & Poor's 500 index, made a failed stab at the recent highs as we suggested was most likely to happen. The index then sold off the the Median line as forecasted. Now, it will try again for the high, but we think it will fail again. However, if it breaks Thursday's low of 1348.84 this time, then the top is likely in.

The INTERMEDIATE breakout sell signal is a break of 1321 and 1319. 1243 is the daily uptrend  line and 1248 is the measured move lower target for this initial pattern, which may give us another bounce to get short from near the trend line as well. An upside breakout of 1393 would negate our short-term view for perhaps a few days. Two forces are at work here. It may get rough for a while, but one hand will win shortly and it will be quite a ride. You do not want to miss it.

TRADE: Sell S&P500 at 1321 stop to open, use 1368 stop loss. We will stay with this one until further notice since the downside potential is so huge. We may have to try this.

Day traders look to go short on rallies into over bought areas, as long as the 60-minute trend is still down.

Normally we like the 240 minute trend to also be in alignment, but again, since the downside is so huge now, we will be a bit more agressive until either a strong upside breakout proves us wrong or volatility dies, which seems unlikely….See daily, 4-hour, and 60-minute charts below.

sp500 daily chart

240-minute sp500 chart

s&p500 60-min chart

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