Market Forecast for 12-03-12

EURUSD: The long-term weekly chart we have posted numerous times is at or close to resistance in the AM session. Thus far, the longer-term pattern still looks somewhat favorable to break eventually higher, but right now we have to see if the resistance holds here and the EURO sells off, or if it breaks above 1.31.

Daily chart resistance on the Euro is at 1.3048 and then 1.3093 to 1.31 area, so that leaves a little fudge room before both daily and weekly resistances would be taken out to the upside. The 1.3100 resistance looks strong for the next day or two. However, breaking 1.31 would likely eventually usher in the measured move pattern targets at 1.3514.

ACTION: Play this short-term on both sides unless 1.3100 is exceeded, then stay with, perhaps it until 1.35 area. If 30 and 60 minute trends roll over, then the resistance is likely to hold for several days (see weekly and 240-minute charts below).

eurusd weekly chart 12-03-12

eurusd 240-minute chart 12-03-2012

EURJPY: The Euro-Yen pair sold off out of the small wedge, then rallied almost exactly into our manually forecasted topping area. It could still have one more push up, but it is looking more like it may have already rolled over for a bit longer correction lasting 4-8 days or longer once this wave tops.

ACTION 1: Longs should be more cautious here, but breaking 107.54 would likely mean a run to the range of 107.84 to 108.47.

ACTION 2:  Breaking 106.90 may signal shorts to push it lower. Consider shorting and selling intra-day rallies if the 106.90 low is broken (see EURJPY daily chart below with complete analysis).

euro yen daily chart december 3rd 2012

USDCHF: The Dollar-Swiss only had a rally lasting a day and a half and looks like it is trying to break lower. Indicators on daily and weekly charts are short-term oversold, so it may be choppy until a decisive break or rally occurs. Breaking the 15-week low of .9245 would likely be very bearish long-term for the pair, leading to a potential measured move to the .8450 area.

ACTION 1: BUY SIDE: Look to buy if  9410 is exceeded, with target of.9812.

ACTION 2: SELL SIDE: If this pair breaks .9245, then sell rallies for a potential move down to .8450-.8420.

usdchf weekly chart 12-3-12

AUDNZD: This pair has compressed and we will look for a thrust in either direction.

ACTION: Straddle the 2-day range and buy/sell a breakout in either direction. Long target is 1.2780 to 1.2925. Short target is 1.2430 (see daily Aussie-New Zealand Dollar chart below).

audnzd daily chart december 3, 2012

AUDCAD: Similar situation to AUDNZD.

ACTION 1: BUY the 2 day high and a trend-line breakout at 1.0397. Target is 1.05.

ACTION 2: SELL if 1.320 is broken on the downside (came close earlier), Target is 1.0265 (see daily chart below).

audcad daily chart 12-03-2012

STOCK MARKETS:

Long-term US stock market cycle summations top around mid March 2013. However, since these cycles are so long-term (some 42 & 34 years long), they can be off by 6 months or so, meaning that we may have topped in September, we may top in March 2012 or it could go until September 2013 (less likely). Either way, after this topping phase, it's down until mid 2016 +/- 6 months. Get your shorts ready.

S&P500: The index is pushing at the next resistance level of 1420, Should it break that level, then the Andrews Pitchfork is the next resistance at 1440. However, it could also break short-term support at 1409.50.

ACTION: Be a seller below 1409.30 and be a cautious buyer if it breaks above 1420.20 (see daily S&P chart below).

s&p500 daily chart 12-03-12

HK: The Hong Kong stock index made a new high for this leg up and promptly had a KEY REVERSAL bar lower. Keep and eye on the global markets for potential reversals, since this market was one of the stronger markets on the way up recently (see daily HK40 chart below).

daily hong kong index chart for december 3, 2012

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