Market Forecast for 09-12-12

Currency Markets

The New targets for the EURUSD, are 1.2915 (2.618* corrective move), 1.3010 (3.20* corrective move), 1.3191 (4.23* corrective move and auto forecast line) and 1.3261 (measured pattern forecast).

The Euro broke higher, which clarified the pattern. We now have a 5 wave up sequence, so this small section of waves is about over. We will be anticipating a 4-7 day correction within 48 hours or so (see daily chart below).

euro daily chart

The GBPUSD WEEKLY chart shows that the pair is likely on its way to the 1.6450-80 area that we mapped out months ago as a target if the Pound broke out of the sideways movement it has experienced for months. It too is getting close to another correction point. We will likely see a several day pullback within 24-48 hours on cable (see weekly chart below).

cable weekly chart

GBPAUD topped as expected and is retracing, See targets on Pound-Aussie chart below.

pound-aussie daily

EURAUD in double topping pattern for this wave. A short-term short position is now in effect. High risk short-term traders may want to look at some intra day short trades. Caution, because it is against the daily trend (daily chart with analysis is provided below).

euraud daily chart

USDCHF broke lower and is now completing a 5 wave sequence at target 1 for that wave @ .9378, now, with target 2 at .9327 (see daily chart below). It is likely that one of these levels will support this pair for a several day retracements  Each day it is looking worse for the USD longer-term.

usdchf daily chart

Daily and weekly charts with analysis for Dollar-Yen (USDJPY) are also provided below.

usdjpy weekly chart

dollar-yen daily chart

US Stock Market and Gold

ND, the NASDAQ stock index appears to have topped on this wave, and perhaps THE top, right into our Andrews upper Pitchfork resistance line mapped out months ago. Other small cap stocks are showing weakness as well (see daily ND chart below).

nasdaq daily chart

S&P500 and DOW popped out this last wave after a nice breakout (stopped our of our short position). So this long trade made up for that quickly! Prepare for a reversal (see weekly and daily S&P charts below).

sp500 weekly

standard and poors daily chart

THE VIX Volatility index appears to be making a low. A top in the equities market is likely near, at least for this leg. Look to buy some VIX CALL options or get ready to short the stocks and indexes again.

XAUUSD GOLD just hit our second recent target of 1734, and may pause here or at 1753 before trying for the 1785 price target, where we would expect a larger correction. We are still bullish long-term until the daily trends signal a major reversal. Gold weekly and daily charts are provided below.

gold weekly chart

xauusd daily chart

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