Market Forecast for 07-30-12

Market GEOMETRY, indicators and Elliott Wave caught a HUGE move in the EUR/USD. Now, a correction to 1.2240 area is likely, then perhaps a day or so bounce, then a low to around 1.2210-00 or 1.2155 area, then back up to 1.2480, 1.2510 OR 1.2602 for the top of this move. See Euro 4-hour chart with analysis below.

euro 240-min chart with analysis

Market GEOMETRY, indicators and Elliott Wave caught an equally large move in the S&P500, more that I expected from day one of a bounce signal. Yes, Gold and OIL also had nice signals too, but crude oil's up move looks very corrective (not a new up trend move). Furthermore, the recent down leg looks more impulsive (a potential new downtrend), which hints of a more downward economy in the future (see oil chart below).

crude oil 4-hour chart

Back to stocks: The S&P 500 hit the stated upper target of 1370-72 area mentioned before Friday's opening. I said that if that were to happen, stocks would rise until October or November. HOWEVER, after looking at the weekly and monthly charts, I recant that forecast. Why? It could still do it, and anything is possible, BUT,,,,the angular momentum of weekly and monthly highs are likely telling of a slowing of the long-term price momentum and roll over is more likely than a new bull market.

I recommend to be OUT of any upside trades from here on out, UNLESS the next upper breakout area is reached at 1398. If that area is hit, you could see 1422-1449, which would be the next upper target, IF 1398 is exceeded.

The 1319 level is still MAJOR SUPPORT for the S&P500 and where ALL prudent investors should have their stop loss in for any stocks, funds or retirement accounts based on everything I look at. However, until that level is broken, anything is possible. I recommend that traders operate using 240-minute charts on lower for now, until the daily/weekly trend is  clarified by either exceeding 1398 or by breaking below 1319. See SP500 daily chart below with forecast.

s&p500 index chart below - daily

Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart

gold xauusd daily chart

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