Market Forecast for 06-26-12

EURUSD: The Euro broke out to the downside hitting the first target of 1.2476 (see the daily chart below). Long-term traders stay short. Short-term traders expect a corrective 1-3 day rally to sell into, beginning within 48 hours, likely sooner. Then look for Euro prices to continue lower into the weeks and months ahead. Next price targets are 1.2444, 1.2370, 1.2200.

ACTION: sell rallies until further notice.

eurusd daily chart

AUDUSD: Here are the details for a quick trade on the Aussie: Buy 1.0060 stop to open,  use .9980 stop loss, move stop loss to break even at 1.0100, exit 1/3 to 1/2 position at 1.0135, trail stop and exit remaining position on your trailing stop or at 1.0330 limit, whichever comes first.

GBPUSD: Cable topped as expected on the Andrews Median Line and has likely begun it's descent lower. See monthly and daily charts below for general path and price targets.

ACTION, sell rallies until further notice.

cable monthly chart for june 26, 2012

gbpusd daily

USDCHF: Swissy will likely do the inverse and has perhaps finished or about to finish its first leg up of this new impulse trend move up. So, look for a quick corrective 1-3 day pullback to position longer-term shorts or to scalp the short trades with the acceleration up in the US Dollar.

ACTION: Buy pullbacks in the USD (see daily chart below).

swissy daily chart analysis

DJ: Dow stock index, topped on the Andrews Pichfork's R1 upper resistance line and began its likely crash phase as we have been cataloging thus far. After a likely brief corrective rally, the next price targets are 11230, 10069, 9877 and eventually MUCH lower (see weekly/daily charts with analysis below).

ACTION: Trade the short side, especially after this next corrective rally and get ready to bank it on the short side with a potential CRASH phase, as long has the recent 10-day high remains intact!

dow jones weekly chart

dow daily

XAUUSD: Gold has performed almost perfectly according to our mapped out forecasts. Now it is a bit unclear whether it will tank $400-$500 or do the opposite on the upside and hit $2200. As we have been saying, gold has an 8-year cycle top that is (or was) due in 2012. However, it is still posible that the high of 2011 was the top for 2-3 years. An equal good argument is that this long-term sideways move is a fractal (a duplicate on a larger level of a prior correction – see blue box on weekly gold chart below) that eventually led to much higher prices.

ACTION: look for a breakout above 1641 or below 1527 before getting excited about either direction.

xauusd weekly chart

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