Market Forecast for 01-14-13

DXH3: The US Dollar Index (commonly quoted as DXY or DXH3 on the MT4 trading platform) has sold off and actually exceeded our larger price target. Thank you very much! It is now providing a short-term buy opportunity. See daily and 240-minute charts below for breakout and targets.

Once it breaks out of the wide range of the two week high and low, then we will know the big picture trend. If stocks roll over to the south side as indicators are suggesting within a few days to a week (unless there is a significant accelleration up), then the USD may stage another larger rally. Breaking the two week low will negate the bullish view in the USD for now.

ACTION: Look to get long on intra-day pullbacks as long as Friday's low is not taken out.

dxh3 us dollar index daily chart 01-14-2013

us dollar index 240-minute chart january 14, 2013

S&P500 and ND-NASDAQ: As mentioned above, unless stock markets really accelerate up within a day or two, stock indexes appear to be their final phase of a Wave 2 corrective rally that looks to be topping between HERE and 1484 (a new high) on the SP500, and to 2814 (not a new high for NASDAQ) on the ND.

We will be leaning to the sell side more as we approach the super long term cycle top projecting a topping period that runs between January and April of this year. We are still aware than we may have one more high, but each passing day, with lower momentum up moves, brings us closer to crash-ville USA.

ACTION: Short-term traders should look to sell on intra-day rallies unless Monday's early session London high of 1470.63 is exceeded.

Medium term traders can also SELL on intra-day rallies unless the high of 1470.63 is exceeded, or on a break of 1467.42, with a stop at 1470.26. Use trailing stops rather than short-term targets since we are looking to catch a big fish in these waters. However, as always, we move our stops to break even very quickly. Use 1460. See S&P (weekly, daily and 15-min), NASADAQ (weekly) and Dow Jones (weekly) charts below with complete analysis and forecasts.

s&p500 weekly chart 01-14-13 with analysis

sp500 daily graph for january 14th

s&p500 15 minute chart 01-14-13

nasdaq nd weekly chart 01-14-2013

dow jones weekly chart dj 01-14-13

XAUUSD: Gold rallied as expected, but is now at a compression point.

ACTION 1: If long, stay long with a STOP and REVERSE (SAR) to a light SHORT position at 1658.30, with a stop at 1670.10.

ACTION 2: If flat, use 1676.80 as a place to start buying intra-day pullbacks, else wait to SELL a light SHORT position at 1658.30, with a stop at 1670.10. See daily gold chart below.

gold xauusd daily chart for january 14, 2013

OIL: Crude oil is above the daily GREEN TMA Channels and tapping on the upper PURPLE channel that often provides resistance.

ACTION: Unless the energy markets explode up today, we will be looking for a place to sell over the next 48 hours. SELL intra-day rallies IF the 15-60 minute trends have turned lower. We may get range bound in here between 91.48 and 95.20. If 91.48 is broken, then we can look to the 89.70 area. See chart below for crude oil.

oil daily chart 01-14-13

ASIAN CROSSES: Take your pick. They all need a pullback very soon.

ACTION: Look to short intra-day rallies as long as the 30-60 minute trends are sloping lower (and whatever time-frames you are trading that are lower than these time frames). CADJPY and USDJPY daily charts are provided below. The USDJPY has the cleanest wave pattern and it appears that this is just a WAVE 3 top for this currency pair, meaning higher highs after a fairly substantial retracement to the 87.50 to 85.40 price area.

usdjpy yen daily chart for 01-14-2013 with forecast

cad-yen daily chart 01-14-13

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