Market Forecast for 04-02-12

AUDCAD: Bottoming action in the Aussie-CAD currency pair that was expected has occurred. Those that bought early dip from short-term change in trend to the upside have likely been handsomely rewarded. Look to continue to buy dips as long as the 15-60 minute trends (or higher) are heading up.

Again, expect an initial pop up (in progress), then a pullback (pending within 48-72 hours), then a more serious rally, as suggested by the computer generated forecasts.

AUDJPY: FX Analysis of weekly chart pattern still suggests a top between the recent high at .88 to the the upper trend-line in RED at .91 area (see previous forecast). Ideally it would pull back a bit first to the purple automated midline, then rally once again. Until we know for sure, daily trend in AUDJPY is down, looking for a possible low around .83. For now, it is a toss-up as to whether it will rally first, then head down, or bounce just a bit, not make a new high, then pullback to the .8360 price area before any potential for a highter top is realized.

AUDNZD: Super short trade continues working out on this pair…Look to continue to sell rallies. The expected pop rally occurred and was an outside day reversal lower. Now, expect a slightly bigger rally for another potentially nice short set up, for a final plunge to the 1.2530 area. If you are a short-term Forex trader, continue to hit the short side while scalping profits off the lower band lines that are containing the short moves.

EURUSD: The sideways movement has occurred, so keep looking for a breakout move. Daily trends are obviously up, so look to buy dips, unless the 15-60 minute time frames turn lower. FX Traders may may want to fade rallies should a breakdown occur, as it is also posible here and somewhat suggested by the computer forecasts after a brief rally in price.

NZDUSD: NZDUSD chart suggests a breakout  to the upside is likely, but there is a tad bit of room on the downside until the lower Andrews Pitchfork Support line is reached, so use caution or stops that are a bit wider below the lower fork line. A stop at .8160 should keep us in a long trade if it breaks out to the upside above .8200.

FX Trade Recommendation 1: Buy NZDUSD @ .82 stop to open, use .8160 stop loss, target = 82.80.

FX Trade Recommendation 2: Buy NZDUSD @ .8180 Limit (or bettter), .8160 stop loss, target = 82.80.

See the NZDUSD chart below:

NZDUSD forecast kiwi-dollar

EURCHF: Sideways movement then a big breakout, which may have started to the downside, with Friday's move lower, as the 15-60 minute trends turned lower. Consider fading (selling) rallies for a while as suggested by the computer forecast models.

USDJPY: Looks like one more rally before an intermediate top, but this could be tricky since we had a gap open Sunday. See the Dollar-Yen forecast below on the daily chart: 

usdjpy chart with analysis

FX Trade Recommendation: Buy USDJPY @ 82 or better (use some discretion on this on), use 81.20 stop, target 84.50.

Dow Jones Stock Index: topping action that was expected in ND (NASDAQ), SP (Standard & Poor's 500) and DJI (DOW) now appears to indicate that these market indexes may have finished the upside move for the time being. Look to short rallies for now…

DJI Trade Recommendation: Sell DJI 13150 or better, use 13220 stop loss, target 1 = 12880, target 2 = 12800. Long-term picture should clear up after the pattern of this sell-off confirms if it's bearish or just a correction lower before a final top.

Cycles suggest that we could see some fireworks lower into mid May or so. Stay tuned. See the Dow charts below:

dow chart h4 time frame

dow chart daily time frame

OIL: Crude Oil Traders short oil from 105, move stops to 104.30 to lock .70 profit. Profit targets are 100.90 and 96.75, so exit at least 1/2 of the position at 100.90 and trail stops down to 96.75 price area…

 

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