Market Forecast 03-21-12

USDCAD, AUDNZD and USDCHF Analysis and Potential Trades

The previous short trade recommendation on the USDCAD currency pair was stopped out at break even. (You've got to love those tight BREAKEVEN moves!)

USDCAD LONG from 9930 stop to open, move stop a tad bit lower to .9978 price level. Move stop to break even at .9977 while exiting 1/3 position (came within 9 pips).

Exit remaining positions at 1.0028 limit, or trail 1/2 to 1/3 of position up to 1.0140 limit exit.

This was a breakout fake-out that happens sometimes. We have to be prepared for these. Even the long trade may be a fake out since it came within 9 pips of break even.

AUDNZD breakout DOWN (Trade 1) = Sell Aussie-Kiwi at 1.2797 stop to open, use 1.2850 stop loss, move stop to break even at 1.2760 while exiting 1/3 position.

Exit remaining positions at 1.2680 limit, or trail remaining position down to 1.2585 limit exit. See the daily AUDNZD forecast chart below:

AUDNZD Aussie Kiwi Forecast and Sell Trade Recommendation

USDCHF is likely at an inflection point, likely to continue lower unless a real equities market crash sets in sooner rather than later. Continue to sell rallies.

Stock Market Report and Trade Reco's

DJI (Dow): Short from 13098, use 1.3251 stop loss, move to break even at 13029 while exiting 1/3 to 1/2 position.

Exit remaining positions at 12906 limit or trail 1/3 of position down to 12600 limit exit.

Thus far, sell-off looks corrective (not good for us), but we have to give it a bit more room for position traders. Short-term traders continue to look for intraday sell points over the next few days as this wave tops out and we get a chance to rock it lower for a bigger correction. The Dow is likely completing a Wave 5 advance of this larger wave 3 of C advance, to be followed by a larger sell off shortly. Look for intraday reversals of trend on the 15-30 minute time frame charts for shorting opportunities whenever the shorter-term trends are heading down.

We added a daily chart below with a forecast on the NASDAQ index (ND).

Stock Market Forecast ND NASDAQ for March 21st

Oil and Coffee

OIL: Keep an eye on this market as it builds into a wedge while it decides what it will do. Compression trades are my favorite. This one is getting ready for a breakout.

Coffee: is off 50% in less than a year. Look for a large retracement up soon.

 

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