Market Forecast for 03-05-12

Dollar-Yen Forecast and Trade Setups

USDJPY hit original target 2 and came within 1 pip of target 3 and appears to be reversing as planned. Odds now favor a correction into March 15th +/- 1 day. See the USDJPY chart below and the trade recommendations that follow.

USDJPY Dollar-Yen Forecast - Sell Japanese Yen

Dollar-Yen TRADE 1: Sell USDJPY on a bounce @ 81.50 limit (leave open for only 48 hours, cancel if not hit then, use stop loss at 81.87 GTC, move stop to break even at 80.52 and exit 1/3 to 1/2 @ 80.55.

PRICE TARGET 2 = 80.05

PRICE TARGET 3 = 79.45 or March 14th (or early 15th), whichever comes first.

Dollar-Yen TRADE 2 (same as above except entry is a breakout below Friday's high):  Sell USDJPY @ 81.05 stop to open (leave open for only 48 hours, cancel if not hit then, use stop loss at 81.87 GTC, move stop to break even at 80.52 and exit 1/3 to 1/2 of position @ 80.55.

PRICE TARGET 2 = 80.05, 

PRICE TARGET 3 = 79.45 or March 14th (or early 15th), whichever comes first.

Our analysis shows that based on historical seasonal cycles, the Japanese Yen is likely to be be soft against a number of currencies from around the 15-20th of March until the 10-15th of April, so expect to buy currencies against the Yen during that time window.

Dollar-Swiss – Near Temp Resistance

The USDCHF is at or near a temporary resistance level.

Euro – Temporary Support Level

The Euro (EUR/USD) should find temporary support around 1.3153 and again near 1.3103.

Crude Oil Analysis

CRUDE OIL: "IF" oil breaks below a price of 104.80, expect correction to area between 101.42 and 99.95. See the chart below for a forecast on crude oil.

Crude Oil Forecast - Correction if Price Breaks 104.80

US Stock Market Indexes – Short NASDAQ

Stocks indexes could have an intermediate tradable top between now and March 7th or March 15th and therefore, may have a pull back soon.

I'm short a few units of ND (NASDAQ) now with a stop 2661.83.

If 30-minute to hourly averages begin to roll over, look for pullback rallies to sell into for a potential move down to 2507 area. We'll analyze what will happen after that. The chart below shows the forecast on NASDAQ.

NASDAQ Forecast - Analysis of Stock Indexes - ND

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