Market Forecast – 02-20-12 – EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF

EURUSD Forecast

EURUSD Forex Forecast 02-20-12

This launches our series of professional market analysis reports. We start the week with an analysis of the EURUSD (above), USDJPY, and USDCHF.

EURUSD is currently long (see chart above), but at short-term resistance, with more resistance directly above @ 1.330-1.333 area. A move above the resistance means buying the dips; otherwise, our trades are asked to exercise caution at these areas of market resistance.

USDCHF Forecast

USDCHF Forecast 02-20-12

The US Dollar against the Swiss Franc, USDCHF, is currently at .9147, and looks bound lower to .8618 area, the .382% retracement of the July to December rally. A print greater than .9312 would negate this view. Until then, consider selling rallies.

USDJPY Forecast

Dollar-Yen (USDJPY) appears to be putting in a longer-term low (even the Yen against the Euro looks weak; that is, the EURJPY cross is strong). However, now I expect a 1.5 to 3 day pullback. Consider buying dips in the USDJPY (and EURJPY) beginning sometime after Tuesday or Wednesday, and/or near the price area of 78.33 to 77.50, with a stop loss @ 77.30.

XAUUSD Gold Forecast

XAUUSD Forecast 02-20-12

Buy gold on daily/weekly breakout above 1737.30, stop at 1716.90, target 1 = 1772, target 2 = 1800. A print below the 1720-level for XAUUSD would negate this view on gold and set up for a lower move to 1704 again.

S&P500 Stock Market Forecast

S&P500 Stock Market Forecast 02-20-12

SP500 is very overbought for now, so I'm looking for a pullback to begin between Monday (today) and Wednesday, and provide a 3-10% dip into March 3-7th. If that does not happen, perhaps the market would top on March 7th, but now its very stretched.

The measured move from a pennant or wedge is still higher but investor psychology is far too bullish for much higher prices right now. Look for a short term pullback, then one more rally attempt. Whether a new high is made in this series or not, I expect a sizable top soon and some negative market fireworks around mid May, so keep and eye out for that time band for potential harsh realities to come to the forefront. Perhaps mid March this year or next is when global hostilities may increase. It's the leaders, not the people, who seem to be the problem.

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One Response to Market Forecast – 02-20-12 – EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF

  1. Anonymous says:

    Update on yesterday’s Forex Forecast. XAUUSD triggers buy at 1737.30 and still in long position with Gold rallying around 20 points. Consider raising stops to break even. EURSUD dropped off the 1.3300 resistance by actually forming a double top pattern approximately 7 pips below 1.3300. Stock market fizzled off the overbought levels mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, so the multi-day pullback may have already begun. USDCHF also headed lower as discussed in yesterday’s market forecast.

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